Twenty-year-old Mikayla Foreman knows her experience is meaningful. Dealing with homelessness since 18 and currently living in a shelter, Foreman has managed to continue her academic journey, studying for exams last month in hopes of attaining a nursing degree.

But Foreman believes there were intervention points that could’ve prevented her from experiencing homelessness in the first place.

“If someone in school had understood what I was going through, things could’ve been very different,” she said in an interview with Stateline.

As more cities impose bans, fines or jail time for adults living on the streets, young people who have been homeless say they face unique problems that could have been addressed earlier. Through more than 400 interviews and survey responses, young people across the country recently told researchers how earlier guidance and intervention might have made a difference for them. The research suggests the country is missing its biggest opportunity to prevent youth homelessness — by intervening well before a young person reaches a shelter and years before they are chronically homeless.

The report, from Covenant House and the University of California, Berkeley, finds that the pathways into youth homelessness are different from those of adults experiencing temporary or chronic homelessness. A young person coming out to their family, or becoming pregnant, or experiencing untreated trauma can create conflicts that push them into homelessness. A lot of that doesn’t show up in current data.

The survey responses offer the nation’s schools and social services agencies the chance to get ahead of youth homelessness, researchers say, not only by intervening earlier, but also by pinpointing and responding to the diversity of needs among teenagers and young adults who might be close to losing their housing.

Advocates say there are multiple intervention points — in school, in child welfare organizations and inside family dynamics — where the worst outcomes can be avoided. States such as California, Florida, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington have explored some of those intervention points in policies that range from guaranteed income pilot programs to youth-specific rental assistance and campus housing protections.

Hawaii has made its youth drop-in and crisis-diversion program permanent, and Oregon and Washington have expanded rental assistance and education-centered supports for vulnerable youth. Florida now requires colleges to prioritize housing for homeless and foster students.

“With young people, we have opportunities to intervene much further upstream — in schools, in families, in child welfare — before anyone has to spend a single night on the streets. That’s simply not the case with older adults,” said David Howard, former senior vice president for Covenant House and a co-author of the new research, in an interview with Stateline.

“Even at 18, 20 or 24 [years old], young people are still developing,” Howard said. “Their vulnerabilities look very different from middle-aged adults, and the support systems they need are different too.”

One of the key points of intervention for potentially homeless youth is school. Public schools across the country have increasingly reported more homeless students since the COVID-19 pandemic.

And homelessness has many various regional factors outside of individual circumstances, such as climate-driven homelessness. More than 5,100 students in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina became homeless as a result of hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024.

“Homelessness is multifaceted and lots of us slip through the cracks because the system isn’t designed for our reality,” said Foreman, a former Covenant House resident who helped conduct the new research.

Foreman’s insights and lived experience were included in the study, which showed that youth homelessness rarely begins with an eviction or job loss — frequent causes of homelessness among adults.

The top three reasons that young people experience homelessness for the first time, according to respondents, were being kicked out of their family homes, running away, and leaving an unsafe living situation such as one affected by domestic violence. Other instigators included being unable to afford housing, aging out of foster care, being kicked out of or running away from foster care, and moving away from gang violence.

However, respondents also had suggestions for ways government, schools and the community could help or prevent youth homelessness. They suggested youth-specific housing options, identifying and helping at-risk youth in health care settings, providing direct cash assistance and offering conflict resolution support within families.

Among the most common suggestions was to offer services that create long-lasting connections for young people.

“Strong relationships with non-parental adults, including mentors, teachers, service providers, and elders, were identified as especially important when family connections were strained or absent,” the report said.

The surveys and interviews also demonstrated that young people want mental health care tailored to their personal experience, said Benjamin Parry, a lead researcher on the report, speaking during a September webinar hosted by Point Source Youth, a nonprofit that works to end youth homelessness.

The research breaks out responses from a few specific groups — Indigenous, Latino, immigrant, LGBTQ+ people of color and pregnant or parenting youth — to understand their distinct needs, said Parry, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley’s School of Public Health. “There’s so much nuance and specificity within these different groups.”

Indigenous youth, for example, often are dealing with the effects of intergenerational trauma and alcoholism that have been projected onto them, Parry said. Those young people have far different needs than pregnant or parenting youth, he noted.

“They are like, ‘I don’t know where my next paycheck’s going to come from, I don’t know how to put food in my baby’s stomach, I don’t have a support network or someone to go to for this advice,’” he said. “That specificity is exactly why we need to understand this better and do better to tailor our approaches and responses.”

©2026 States Newsroom. Visit at stateline.org. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

After just over two months, Southern California Edison has drawn more than 1,800 customers to a compensation program meant to settle scores of lawsuits against the company over the deadly Eaton Fire. As of Monday, the company has made offers to 82 of those who applied,  Edison told CalMatters.

Edison spokesperson Kathleen Dunleavy said the pacing is ahead of what it anticipated.

Fire survivors, who have been providing feedback to Edison since before it launched the settlement program still have strong criticisms of the utility’s compensation effort, called the “Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program.”

They complain that it requires participants to forego lawsuits against the company and blocks them from seeking further compensation for fire-related health claims. Many said the program’s payment caps, which limit the amount claimants can receive, were too low and enable Edison to pay less than the utility might otherwise owe should it be found responsible for the fire.

The Eaton fire burned 14,000 acres of Los Angeles County in January and killed 19. While the official cause has not yet been determined, a leading theory is that Edison’s equipment sparked the blaze. The U.S. Department of Justice is among those who have blamed the utility for the fire.

Insurance money and personal savings are running out for people who lost homes, livelihoods and loved ones in the fire, they and their advocates say. Many are unhoused or facing housing insecurity. One survey estimated 80% of Altadena residents were still displaced by the fire as of October. The Eaton Fire Survivors Network, a prominent grassroots organization, called on Edison to provide up to $200,000 per displaced household “based on verified costs” to help cover housing costs.

“It’s Edison’s responsibility to solve all of this,” Joy Chen, executive director of the group, said. “It’s their fire.”

About $7.6 billion in insurance claims related to the Eaton Fire were paid out as of November, according to the California Department of Insurance, the most recent figures available. About 90% of the payout was for residential property.

Edison offered a collective total of $34.4 million to settle the 82 claims, and none of the offers were declined, it said.

In an interview with CalMatters, Pedro Pizarro, CEO of Edison International, said that about half of the claims that received an offer from Edison as of December were for total losses, and about half were related to smoke and ash damage. While he did not provide specific numbers, Pizarro said that the claims were spread across geography, income levels and home values. Many of those that have been made offers are part of the program’s fast-track option.

At a Dec. 16 press conference held by the survivors network, displaced residents spoke about how unstable housing and the loss of their homes has affected their lives. Gabriel Gonzalez, a plumbing company owner, lost his home, business and about $80,000 worth of tools in the fire. He lived out of his car for an extended period before receiving a small amount of financial assistance that helped him stay in a rental for a few months. But that money is expected to run out this month.

“As of the first of January, I’ll probably be back in my car,” he said at the event.

Pizarro told CalMatters that Edison will not be providing money to residents for housing outside of its compensation program, citing the need to validate expenses. The survivors network request for housing cost assistance was limited to verifiable costs.

One criticism of the program was that children do not receive the same compensation as adults. Under the current version of the program, children receive between 50% and 65% of the compensation adults receive for a loss of their residency, depending on the damage category. If their primary home that they live in was destroyed, adults would get $115,000 and children would receive $75,000. These rates are slightly higher than a draft version of the plan Edison released in the fall.

An open letter at the time from the Eaton Fire Survivor’s Network said giving children less than an equal valuation to adults “treats their suffering as lesser when it is, in reality, greater.”

Pizarro said Edison went with a lower valuation because children often don’t receive as much as adults do under similar programs and adults “end up bearing more responsibility and more cost” for the household and “arrangements for the children.”

“The reality is that adults carry much more burden here,” he said, “and so it’s fair that they, you know, that we have more compensation targeted at the adults.”

Another frustration those affected by the fire expressed was the requirement that participants waive their right to sue the company. Legal representatives of fire survivors who are suing the company cautioned that the settlement program through Edison could short people of any damages and suffering compensation a court might award, as well as potential long term health care compensation or monitoring.

“We are approaching this as a way to settle litigation,” Pizarro said. “It is a form of legal settlement, and legal settlements are typically settlements of all matters, otherwise they’re not really, you know, they’re not really a conclusion to litigation.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

Flush with deposits, US banks are buying up mortgage bonds and betting that the asset class will get a further boost in 2026 from relaxed capital rules.

Late last year, commercial bank holdings of mortgage paper reached the highest level since 2023, and stood at more than $2.7 trillion toward the end of December, according to Federal Reserve data that wasn’t seasonally adjusted. That sum has increased for four consecutive months through November, the longest such streak since the end of 2024.

As the Fed cuts rates, companies and consumers have less to lose by putting money in low-yielding or zero-interest bank accounts, pushing deposit levels to record highs. Total bank deposits stood at over $18.8 trillion as of Dec. 24, the highest ever, according to the latest released data from the Fed.

Armed with plenty of deposits to invest, banks have piled into the notes as the Fed lowered interest rates and mortgage-backed securities offered more value than corporate debt. Total returns on the notes were 8.6% in 2025, the best annual performance in 23 years, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

Both the gains and purchases from banks are likely to continue this year, said Dan Hyman, head of agency mortgage-backed securities at Pacific Investment Management Co.

“A combination of increasing deposits, attractive spreads, yield curves steepening and the Fed lowering interest rates should increase demand from banks,” he said. Pimco expects “spreads to continue to narrow, as their current valuations remain historically cheap.”

Another tailwind is regulatory: Banks are expecting the Fed to introduce rules that would dramatically relax a Biden-era capital proposal for Wall Street’s largest lenders and revise stress test requirements for mortgage notes.

“Deregulation of rules related to treatment of this asset class and lower uncertainty over interest rates will be the key factors for banks to be active buyers,” said Paul Yang, portfolio manager at Seelaus Asset Management.

Estimates for the amount of mortgage bonds banks will purchase on a net basis next year range from as low as $25 billion from Bank of America Corp. to as high as $105 billion from Robert W. Baird & Co.

And banks aren’t the only firms buying more. Real estate investment trusts have also been adding the securities, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Each group is stepping up purchases as the Fed — among the biggest holders of MBS — continues to allow about $15 billion of that debt to run off its balance sheet every month. Fed holdings have declined about $697 billion since March 2022 to just over $2 trillion as of last week.

Demand is rampant partly because mortgage bonds appear cheap relative to investment-grade corporate bonds. One indicator is the difference between spreads on high-grade bonds and mortgage securities: that’s around 55 basis points currently compared with a 10-year average of 78 basis points, according to Bloomberg index data.

Morgan Stanley also sees mortgage bonds as cheaper than investment-grade credit. They “sit in the 20th percentile of their 20-year range and have spent 20% of days tighter than current levels,” strategists Jay Bacow and James Egan wrote in a note in November. That’s compared with high-grade corporate bonds, “which are in the third percentile and have spent only 6% of days tighter,” they wrote. Bacow and Egan expect MBS to outperform high-grade credit in 2026.

While demand for mortgage bonds is seen increasing this year, net supply may be relatively light in 2026, possibly leading to further tightening of spreads. The Fannie Mae 30-year current-coupon spread to the 5/10-year Treasury blend narrowed almost 26 basis points in 2025 to just more than 109 basis points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That suggests investors became less concerned about risks tied to MBS.

Andrew Szczurowski, co-head of securitized products at Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc., sees between $200 billion and $300 billion of net supply this year, similar to the level seen in 2025, as the “housing market remains sluggish.”

He expects “spreads tightening a further 15 to 20 basis points from here as bank demand will come on top of other tailwinds that are forming for this asset class.”

US manufacturing activity shrank in December by the most since 2024, capping a rough year for American factories.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged down to 47.9 from 48.2, according to data released Monday. The measure has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for 10 straight months.

The decline in the measure reflected producers drawing down their raw materials inventories at the fastest rate since October 2024. That indicates many firms are relying on existing stockpiles to satisfy tepid demand.

Plus, materials costs remain elevated. The ISM prices-paid index, which held at 58.5 last month, is 6 points higher than it was at the end of 2024.

New orders contracted for a fourth month and export bookings remained weak, based on the ISM data. Headcount shrank for an eleventh straight month, albeit at a slower pace, amid modest production growth.

“US manufacturing remained in contraction mode for most of 2025, and today’s report doesn’t indicate a turnaround anytime soon,” Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “Weakness in the factory sector is expected to persist, even as the broader economy continues to expand.”

One bright spot in the report was customer inventories shrank at the fastest pace since October 2022, suggesting factory orders and production could firm in coming months.

Still, tariffs and the overall economic uncertainty that President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policy caused during his first year in office have proved challenging for many companies as they weighed expansion plans.

Select ISM industry comments:

“It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame.” — Chemical Products

“Trough conditions continue: depressed business activity, some seasonal but largely impacted by customer issues due to interest rates, tariffs, low oil commodity pricing and limited housing starts.” — Machinery

“Things are quieter regarding tariffs, but prices for all products remain higher. Our costs have increased, so we have increased prices for our customers to compensate. Margins have deteriorated, as full pass through (of cost increases) is not possible.” — Computer & Electronic Products

“Things are not improving in the transportation equipment market. Many customers are ordering for 2026, but those orders are 20% to 30% below their historical buying patterns.” — Transportation Equipment

“Order levels have continued to decline: We had a bad October, an awful November and a dismal December. January and February don’t look too good, as bookings are down 25% compared to the first two months of 2025.” — Fabricated Metal Products

“Morale is very low across manufacturing in general. The cost of living is very high, and component costs are increasing with folks citing tariffs and other price increases.” — Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components

Fifteen industries, led by apparel, wood products and textiles, contracted in December. Just two industries reported growth, the fewest since the end of 2023, the ISM report showed.

But looking ahead, abating tariff uncertainty and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are anticipated to offer a tailwind to capital expenditures this year.

“We take the downside surprise in December’s ISM Manufacturing PMI with a grain of salt. The headline index was dragged down by a faster decline in inventories — but with customer inventories also low, we expect factories to see improved demand in the months ahead,” said Stuart Paul, a Bloomberg economist.

The ISM’s gauge of imports shrank to a seven-month low, while supplier delivery times slowed and order backlogs continued to shrink. ]]> 11338893 2026-01-05T12:35:15+00:00 2026-01-05T12:31:00+00:00 https://www.ocregister.com/2026/01/05/housing-wont-crash-because-its-getting-a-bailout/ Mon, 05 Jan 2026 14:24:56 +0000 https://www.ocregister.com/?p=11330564&preview=true&preview_id=11330564 The bailouts are coming! The bailouts are coming!

Yes, housing’s “no crash” crowd may be right about home pricing avoiding another steep tumble. Those gurus could be proven correct because of my can’t-miss prediction for the 2026 housing market.

The federal government will come to the “rescue” once again.

With affordability ridiculously low for house hunters, you’ll see numerous attempts this year to save housing from the usual free-market fix for a terribly overvalued market: falling prices.

Ponder the current price pain by looking back at monthly payments and how they soared in recent years. My trusty spreadsheet combined monthly median prices, as calculated by Attom, and mortgage rates from Freddie Mac – assuming a 20% down payment.

Nationally, the monthly payment in October was $2,251 for the $360,000 median-priced home. That’s up just 2% in a year.

However, this burden rose 99% over five years and amid pandemic-era economic contractions. It’s up 154% in a decade, when the recovery from Great Recession was in full swing. And it’s 198% higher since 2010.

Yes, payments have basically tripled since just after the last bubble burst. Who got a raise that size?

Statewide, the $4,597 payment for California’s median-priced home of $735,000 in October was flat over a year. But the burden rose 94% in five years, 145% in a decade and 267% since 2010.

The props

To avoid the current high risk of a market crash, housing will be propped up with various tricks.

New loans: We already saw the idea of a 50-year mortgage floated. While it would be just another tool for house hunters trying to make their finances meet pricing realities, the industry wanted more lucrative fixes.

Cheaper loans: Two federal mortgage-buying agencies are now nudging mortgage rates lower with a technical twist: Holding, not reselling, certain home loans they guarantee. This is the government taking on rate risks that mortgage investors would otherwise have to juggle.

Cash: Some form of financial inducements to buyers – especially first-time owners – is a common ploy when markets are sickly. It’s a great deal for the fortunate few who qualify. But it creates competition for other wannabe owners.

Tax breaks: Ponder homeowners who made gobs of money on their residence. The first $500,000 of profit is now tax-free for couples – $250,000 for singles – after a sale. Upping those tax gifts would supposedly create supply by enabling the sale of homes that older owners have outgrown.

Investment sweeteners: Last year’s tax law changes increased the appeal of housing for certain investors by accelerating depreciation on that acquisition. That’s good for investors, but it creates additional competition for individual house hunters.

Production promotions: Getting builders to build isn’t easy when investors, bankers and regulators don’t want them taking too many risks, given the plethora of unsold homes and unrented apartments. Expect novel enticements to try to jump-start a construction push.

The distortion

The possible short-run sales boosts of these bailouts will be cheered by the real estate transaction machine, homeowners and house hunters on the cusp of a purchase.

But increased government aid for housing will likely distort an already unbalanced market.

Home sales collapsed when the last fix – the Federal Reserve’s cheap money policies – had to end.

Ponder the transaction pace since mortgage rates bounced up off historic lows. Nationally, sales are off 26% from the previous three years. Statewide, they’re down 31%.

Yes, everyone talks about “affordability,” but elections aren’t won by doing what’s really needed: letting prices slide.

PS: If this market manipulation for ownership is fine for you, then why is government rent control a bad idea?

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

The ranching family scion with roots stretching back to the 19th century San Joaquin Ranch in Orange County to the early days of oil drilling in Long Beach and a spread in the Santa Ynez Valley, is leading an innovative effort in California to commercialize a new technology that can put out fire with sound-wave energy instead of water and chemicals.

“I really see this acoustic suppression technology as replacing the need for water, which is a very valuable resource in our state,” said Hotchkis, whose great-grandfather, Preston Hotchkis, was an early proponent in the 1940s of importing sorely needed water to the Los Angeles area. As the first president of the Colorado River Association and director of the Metropolitan Water District, Preston Hotchkis, who died at 95 back in 1989, advocated the transfer of Colorado River water to Southern California.

With the January 2025 wildfires in the Pacific Palisades and Altadena communities fresh in his mind — as well as watching his old Altadena home burn down — Hotchkis says “the suppression technology could prove to be revolutionary” for halting advancing flames threatening homes near forests or grasslands, referred to as wildland urban interfaces, or WUIs.

He’s now leading commercialization efforts for an infrasound fire suppression technology in California for Ohio-based Sonic Fire Tech, which is catching the eye of electric utilities, insurers and a few homeowners in L.A. burn areas.

The technology behind Sonic Fire is simple. To protect a house, it routes infrasound waves from a generator through ductworks that sit on the roof’s ridge and under eaves. On the ridge, the sound waves fire down the pitch to catch any fire that might start in debris in the gutters. Under the eaves, they are aimed toward the ground to suppress flames that pop up near the walls, catching bushes or branches on fire.

The system turns on when sensors detect flames — even from a cigarette — producing a thumping sound that breaks down the oxygen that feeds a flame. No ear plugs are needed.

At the moment, the biggest barrier to getting the technology adopted is cost.

He’s signed up 20 homeowners — mostly mansions that are underinsured in the affluent Pacific Palisades area — to buy and install the technology, which can cost 1-2% of a home’s value, or $65,000 to more than $100,000 for a system.

Within a week of the L.A. fires, Hotchkis found himself participating in a rigorous  entrepreneurship competition with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he won first place for a breakthrough approach to protecting homes from burning embers.

While he had a validated business plan from MIT in hand, he had no product — until he was introduced earlier this year to former NASA engineer Geoff Bruder and the Sonic Fire Tech engineering team working to develop infrasound fire suppression technology. Recognizing the shared vision, he joined Sonic Fire Tech and planted his flag in California, citing the $424 billion in annual wildfire costs nationwide and the possibility of the biggest potential for profit in the Golden State.

“California has the biggest problem,” he said.

The system is designed to extinguish embers before they blow into crevices and under eaves during a windstorm of fire like that which what happened in the Pacific Palisades and Altadena areas last January.

“Our goal is to get that price significantly lower, to make our technology more accessible,” Hotchkis said.

California is the first outpost to bring the technology to market for the company, which already is getting a receptive audience from state Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Fire Chief Dan Munsey of the San Bernardino County Fire Protection District and major electric utilities in the Western U.S.

“I dumped five gallons of gasoline on a small Christmas tree, lit it on fire, and watched 10-foot flames before we used sound waves to put it out,” said Munsey, who tested out a backpack version of the technology at his agency’s Richard Sewell Training Center a few months ago. “It absolutely works.”

In October, Lara said at a demonstration of the technology at the Hope Ranch in Santa Barbara that homeowners can’t afford something that doesn’t exist, especially as insurance companies retreat from the state.

“We are at a critical point now where the department finally has embraced technology,” said Lara, who highlighted funding available through Cal Fire’s Office of WildfireTechnology Research and Development to test out new technologies like Sonic Fire Tech’s.

Is the technology pie in the sky? Maybe not.

In October, the startup raised $3.5 million in funding from a group of investors. It’s now in talks with several other investors for funding “north of $100 million,” including establishing a manufacturing operation in the Cleveland area to begin assembling motors and other fabricated parts for the fire suppression system, Hotchkis said.

We asked Hotchkis about his work with Sonic Fire and the fire suppression technology’s prospects in California. His answers have been edited for clarity and length.

Q: Is there a demonstration of this technology that others in the Pacific Palisades and Altadena communities can see firsthand?

A: The company is planning to host multiple demonstrations of its Sonic home defense system across California in the early part of 2026.

Q: What is the maximum distance to extinguish an approaching fire? 

A: Our home defense systems are designed to protect “zone zero,” which is the immediate adjacent area of a home’s structure — up to 5 feet in distance. However, the system is designed to operate effectively in detecting and suppressing ignition up to 30 feet around the home. It is intended to protect against the threat of embers that accumulate around the home and ignite the structure in a wildfire scenario, like we witnessed in the L.A. fires. The larger system we are working on for commercial, utility and first responder applications is designed to operate with an effective range of over 100 feet.

Q:  Are electric utilities showing interest in the technology? 

Yes. We have a demonstration contract with PG&E’s California EPIC program, which is focused on testing our acoustic suppression technology’s effectiveness at protecting their critical infrastructure, at a range of 300 feet.

We are building our system to showcase our commercial system, to protect substations for utilities as well as corridors for transmission lines. The idea is to demonstrate a 300-foot radius around a transmission line, as a non-ignition zone so we can prevent the arc that sparks and starts wildfires.

We’ll have a controlled burn, permitted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technology. This is really meaningful to the utilities. Preventing the spark from occurring is our moonshot. But right now, what’s feasible is protecting homes from conflagration risk, and that’s what we’re focused on.

There also is interest in the technology coming from data centers that recognize the “collateral damage” caused by water, chemicals and gas to extinguish fires.

(Editor’s note: PG&E’s EPIC program, which stands for Electric Program Investment Charge, is a state-mandated program funded by utility customers to invest in the research, development and demonstration of emerging clean energy technologies.)

Q: Does the insurance industry need to qualify this technology?

A: We are currently in the early stages of a certification process with Underwriters Laboratories (works in testing and certification of products for safety), FM Global (an international property insurance and loss prevention company), and National Fire Protection Association (a nonprofit that publishes codes and standards to reduce fire, electrical and other hazards) while working with fire marshals across the state to validate our technology for multiple uses. They have all recognized that new codes have to be written for this novel fire suppression method, which has clear advantages over legacy water and chemical-based suppression systems.

The largest reinsurers (an insurance company that backs other insurance companies) have told us that if this technology is proven out to work, and is validated in a way that’s meaningful and quantifiable for them and acquired by homeowners, they can see this being required by underwriters to make insurance more competitive.

Q: Is the sound suppression system a new idea? 

A: No. This has been around for 100 years. Some have looked at drones (or firefighting flying saucers) to carry smoke sensors and thermal cameras to find fire and use sound waves to snuff out flames. In 2012, DARPA (the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) — spent 10s of million of dollars showing sound could put out a fire with a suppression system, but they weren’t able to make it efficient enough to bring it to scale.

(A decade ago, Seth Robertson and Viet Tran, two engineering students from George Mason University developed a fire extinguisher that used a 10-inch subwoofer to generate low-frequency sound waves to put out a fire. They showed off their extinguisher on The Tonight Show starring Jimmy Fallon.)

Q: Why is this system needed? 

A: I have a rare insight into California’s resource and the original founders of Los Angeles County. My great-grandfather (Preston Hotchkis) told our family that the water coming to L.A. can support 11 million people, and right now we’re at 10.5 million. And so I know water is a very precious resource — especially in the U.S. Southwest, as Nevada and Arizona develop. I’m very motivated  to replace water infrastructure with some other alternative, and that’s where I see acoustic suppression in the future. I think that’s the way California growth is more sustainable than it has been.

The wildfires in California are among the worst in the nation.

About Remington Bixby Hotchkis

Age: 37

Title: Chief Commercialization Officer, Sonic Fire Tech

Employees: 20

Revenue: $3-5 million in 2025

Experience: Launched Los Angeles-based wholesale coffee bean distribution company, Bixby Roasting Co., scaling it into a national retailer before its acquisition by Arkansas-based Westrock Coffee Co. in February 2023.

Founded: In 2019, by Geoff Bruder, a former NASA engineer at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Ohio where he worked on power systems for the space agency’s planetary missions, and  attorney Michael Thomas, chairman of the startup. Bruder, the chief executive offficer, came up with the technology for the initial Sonic Fire suppression system three years ago by extinguishing a fire in a tin pan filled with isopropyl alcohol in the driveway of his Rocky Ridge, Ohio, home. Other key players include Hotchkis, who joined in April, and Dan McCormack, chief operating officer and director of finance.

2025 marked a personal milestone for me with the launch of my first book, The SEQUENCE, a Personal Journey and Proven Framework for Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Success. I have been both humbled and encouraged by the response. It has found favor with commercial real estate professionals around the globe, which tells me that the principles of structure, discipline and long term thinking resonate no matter the market.

Looking ahead, 2026 promises another book. I’m already working on Holding the Keys, Commercial Real Estate Decisions That Shape Family Business Success. This book will read much like this column has for more than 11 years and is written for those of you who run family businesses or advise them. Real estate decisions inside family enterprises carry a different weight, and this book is designed to address that reality.

But aside from new reading material, what do I see unfolding in commercial real estate this year? Allow me to offer a few predictions.

Patience will be rewarded

The frantic pace of decision making we saw in prior cycles has cooled. In 2026, thoughtful buyers and tenants will benefit from slowing down. Pricing expectations are still adjusting in some sectors, and deals that make sense tend to favor those willing to wait, ask better questions, and negotiate deliberately. Urgency will still exist, but artificial urgency will be exposed quickly.

Revisiting ownership conversations

With interest rates no longer whipsawing and lending standards better understood, many family owned businesses will once again evaluate whether ownership makes sense. Some will decide to buy. Others will decide to lease longer term. What matters is not the outcome, but the intentionality behind the decision. I expect more owners to separate emotion from strategy when it comes to owning the building they operate from.

Relocation decisions

For years, rent dominated relocation conversations. In 2026, efficiency will reclaim center stage. Workflow, labor access, power, yard, parking, and functionality will matter as much as rental rate. Businesses that optimize operations often outperform those that simply chase lower rent. I expect more relocations to be framed around productivity rather than savings alone.

Industrial remains resilient

Industrial real estate will continue to be a bright spot, but not all industrial properties will perform equally. Buildings with functional obsolescence, excessive office, limited loading, or poor access will struggle. Well located, efficient facilities that serve modern logistics and manufacturing needs will continue to attract interest. Selection will matter more than ever.

Value of preparation

Owners who prepare their properties for sale before exposing them to the market will outperform those who do not. Clean documentation, realistic pricing, and a clear understanding of buyer motivation will separate smooth transactions from frustrating ones. In 2026, buyers remain cautious and informed. Preparation will not be optional.

Advisers who bring clarity win

Finally, I believe 2026 will reward advisors who bring clarity rather than noise. Clients are tired of conflicting opinions and endless data without context. They want thoughtful guidance, clear frameworks, and honest conversations. Those who listen well and explain better will earn trust and long term relationships.

As always, markets will surprise us. Headlines will distract us. Predictions will be proven partially right and partially wrong. But the fundamentals remain. Commercial real estate decisions are rarely just about property. They are about people, timing, and long term consequences.

Here is to a healthy, productive, and thoughtful 2026. I look forward to continuing the conversation with you each week.

Happy New Year!

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104.

The Safe Homes grant program is designed to help low- and middle-income homeowners with fire mitigation. People who qualify can use the grants to create 5-foot ember-resistant zones around properties, also known as Zone Zero, as required by law in some areas. The program will also contribute toward costs for fire-safe roofs.

The state’s Insurance Department, which is responsible for implementing the program, is working out the details around eligibility, the amount of and the distribution of grants. It is now developing an application portal that it hopes to have ready by March, said Michael Soller, spokesperson for the department.

The insurance department will be handling all the details of the grants, said Mike Dayton, chief of staff of Assemblymember Lisa Calderon, the Los Angeles-area Democrat and chair of the Assembly Insurance Committee who wrote the law, and has so far secured $3 million in the state budget to get the program started.

Soller said homeowners who have policies with admitted insurance carriers or the last-resort FAIR Plan and who live in high-risk areas will have to meet income limits set by the state housing department to be eligible for the grants. Those grant amounts have not yet been determined. Communities, cities and counties with mitigation projects could also apply for grants.

He also said the insurance department plans to advocate for additional and ongoing funding for the program.

Another source of funding could be the federal government, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Soller said. But Gov. Gavin Newsom recently tried to meet with FEMA to talk about disaster aid related to the Los Angeles County fires and was unsuccessful.

Also, two Californians in Congress have proposed legislation that would establish a federal grant program and tax credits for mitigation. U.S. Reps. Mike Thompson, a Napa Democrat, and Doug LaMalfa, an Oroville Republican, have introduced their bill for the past two sessions, but it has not made it to a floor vote.

The California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection recently extended the finalization of rules regarding Zone Zero buffers around properties to the first half of next year. The rules are expected to take effect for existing homes in 2029.

A view of Lennar’s Painted Canyon Residence 2 model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Lennar’s Painted Canyon Residence 4 model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Woodside’s Vega model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Woodside’s new home Vega model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Lennar’s new Painted Canyon Residence 3 model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A Woodside’s new home Astra model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of some new Watt Capital homes at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that has been three decades in the making and is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of the Silverwood’s Welcome Center, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of an open area at the Silverwood’s Welcome Center, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Woodside’s Vega model at Silverwood, the new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Silverwood’s welcome center manager Jennifer Hernandez stands in front of a sign showing the location of the five developers’ models at the new master-planned community in Hesperia, that has been three decades in the making and is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Prospects new residents visit the models at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of some new Richmond homes at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

James Marrero holding his 3 months old son James Carter Marrero at their new Lennar’s home at Silverwood, a new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Wayne and Robin Gulley stand in front of their new Watt Capital home at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Clairisa Mattig Smith in her future kitchen being built by Woodside Homes at Silverwood in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

New resident at Silverwood, James Marrero holding his 3 months old son James Carter Marrero, stands in front of his house built by Lennar at the new master-planned community in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

New owners Wayne and Robin Gulley stand in front of their home with Silverwood’s welcome center manager Jennifer Hernandez (left) and from Watt Capital Developers, Colleen Lakshin, (right) at the new master-planned community in Hesperia that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of some new homes from Woodside (left) and Lennar (right) at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that has been three decades in the making and is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of James Marrero’s kitchen built by Lennar at Silverwood in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Woodside homes under construction at Silverwood, a new master-planned community, in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

Clairisa Mattig Smith and her son Gauge Proctor, 18, stand in front of their under construction future new home at Silverwood in Hesperia on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

New owners Wayne and Robin Gulley get their home keys at Silverwood, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that has been three decades in the making and is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of the amphitheater at Silverwood’s Village Green, a community gathering park near Welcome Center, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Silverwood’s Village Green, a community gathering park near Welcome Center, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Silverwood’s Welcome Center and entrance from Village Green in a new master-planned community in Hesperia, that is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

A view of Silverwood entrance, a new master-planned community in Hesperia that has been three decades in the making and is still under construction, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo by Milka Soko, Contributing Photographer)

On the morning Wayne and Robin Gulley picked up the keys to their new house in the Silverwood master-planned community of Hesperia, they got a warm welcome to the neighborhood.

The 60-something couple — he’s a project management consultant, she’s a retired behavioral health specialists who now runs the therapeutic dance program Robin’s Nest — got flowers and hugs. As someone stuck a “Welcome Home” sign in the gravel of their xeriscaped yard, another photographed the Gulleys in playful poses.

“When you’re younger, you do all this kind of stuff,” Robin Gulley, 64, said between shots, striking an Instagram-worthy pose with her feet off the ground and one hand raised overhead. After landing, she burst into laughter. “I can still do it, too.”

With this joyful start, the Gulleys became one of the first 50 families to close on a home in the sprawling community. The development launched in 2012 is projected to deliver 15,663 homes over the next two decades on its 9,366-acre site, with nearly half dedicated to open space and parks.

Construction is still in the initial 634-home phase, and affordability serves as a major selling point. Homes start in the $400,000s with a monthly HOA fee of $157, which covers gigabit internet and whole-house Wi-Fi from day one.

As Wayne Gulley, 68, put it, “It’s got a lower cost of living than down the hill.”

The Gulleys chose not to disclose the purchase price of their 2,247-square-foot Spanish style home, featuring three bedrooms and two-and-a-half bathrooms. But Watt Capital Developers, one of five homebuilders developing Silverwood, shows that particular model starts at under $566,000.

That’s significantly lower than California’s median home sales price of $852,680 in November and comparable to San Bernardino County’s $545,000 average price for the same month, based on data provided by the California Association of Realtors and Redfin.In addition to affordability, the master-planned community caters to outdoor enthusiasts, Marketing materials highlight 59 miles of off-road trails, 107 miles of paths and paseos and 387 acres of parks within a 5 to 10-minute walk from every home.

The Pacific Crest Trail runs through the property, and Silverwood Lake, along with the mountain resort towns of Lake Arrowhead and Big Bear, are just a short drive away. But living over the Cajon Pass in this high desert town means a greater commute to major work hubs, being 19 miles from San Bernardino, 28 miles from Ontario and 63 miles from Los Angeles.

C. Michael Stockstill, co-author of “Transforming the Irvine Ranch” and whose next book about Irvine is due in spring, likens these early days of Silverwood to the beginnings of Valencia, a master-planned community established in the late 1960s in Newhall Ranch. At the time, residents faced long commutes to employment centers.

But Newhall pledged to establish a local employment center to create jobs.

“While there are some jobs in Victorville and to a lesser degree in Apple Valley and Hesperia, it will be a long time before a meaningful number of Silverwood residents can find work locally,” Stockstill said. “They must plan on either working remotely … or commuting.”

Relief could come in two new zero-emission infrastructure projects.

By late 2029, a $21.05 billion Brightline West high-speed passenger rail system will connect Las Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga, with stops in Apple Valley and Hesperia. The system will link its Southern California Station in Rancho Cucamonga to the existing Metrolink station by elevator or escalator, enhancing access to and from downtown Los Angeles.

According to a Brightline West spokesperson, the 218-mile project will create more than 35,000 construction jobs and 800 operational positions.

In addition, BNSF Railway’s 4,500-acre Barstow International Gateway (BIG), aims to make Barstow a major intermodal rail hub and bring jobs to high desert communities. That $1.5 billion project, expected to begin construction in late 2026 and to be completed in 2028, aims to shift cargo from heavy-duty trucking to rail transport at a location away from population centers, resulting in a net decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.

Lena Kent, BNSF executive director of public affairs, said BIG could create 62,000 jobs in both the short and long term.

“I’m hoping that we continue to see job growth up here in the Mojave River Valley so fewer people have to commute down the hill because there’s more opportunities,” said John Ohanian, Silverwood’s general manager. “That’s where this economy is going up here.”

Until then, Silverwood continues to emerge. This master-planned community, which cuts through desert terrain dotted by stalks of western Joshua trees. is still under construction.

A Western-style wooden arch emblazoned with “Silverwood” comes into view near the Village Green, a grassy park with a bandshell that has already been the site of community gatherings since residents started moving in over the summer. It’s just across from the Welcome Center.

There, prospective buyers load up on information before spilling onto the fireside patio. A paved walkway lined with native bunchgrasses growing in gravel beds alongside dense clusters of small purple flowers and yellow daisy-like blooms winds its way to 21 fully-furnished model homes.

Clairisa Mattig Smith, a 42-year-old Department of Defense employee, said curiosity about the extensive “dirt work” going on in the area eventually drew her and her 67-year-old mother to the community. The women, both widowed, had been planning a move to Texas, but changed their minds.

After touring all the models, they fell for a two-story, modern farmhouse-style home by Woodside and began the homebuying process on the spot.

The base price for the 2,807-square-foot house with six bedrooms and three bathrooms was $577,000, but they opted for customization, bringing the total to $639,000 in the end.

They also plan to install a pool, outdoor kitchen and garden.

For Smith, a mother of five, ages 13 to 24, the location was a big part of the appeal.

“Being able to look in the next three to five years and know what type of a development this is going to be was just astounding,” she said. “I don’t know if you’re familiar with the high desert, but this doesn’t look like the high desert. It’s just gorgeous.”

She added, “We like the sense of community they’re building.”

Silverwood aims to be more than just a collection of homes, but a vision for community. It asks residents to consider signing a “kindness pledge” before moving in.

While not enforceable, the pledge aims to create a sense of belonging.

“Being kind doesn’t mean you have to bake a pie for your neighbors unless you want to, it’s more about simple gestures,” said Jennifer Hernandez, who manages the Welcome Center at Silverwood. “If you come home and notice your neighbor’s trash cans are still out after two days, instead of calling the HOA to complain, why not pull them in for them? If you see their packages, place them behind their fence.”

For Robin Gulley, that was a big draw.

“The idea of neighbors really being there for one another,” she said. “This had massive appeal for me because that’s my heart.”

Still to come are commercial and retail spaces, schools, fire stations, and sports and pool complexes.

James Marrero, Jr. can’t wait. The 36-year-old father of three children, ages 5 and under, moved his family from a rental in nearby Olive Tree Apartments to their new 2,099-square-foot home in late July, when his youngest and only son was a couple months old.

“We wanted to find a place where our kids could grow up,” said Marrero, who was in the living room with his infant son, the TV streaming a children’s show on mute.

Although the community is still under construction, Marrero, an asset protection supervisor at Lineage Logistics in Riverside, said his family has been exploring the neighborhood on bicycle and getting to know the neighbors.

“We talk all the time,” he said of one neighbor, and that another neighbor “has a 4-year-old, same age as my daughter. A couple of times, we’ve come home late, and they were outside in the garage. The kids look at each other and wave.”

The entry is at the top level. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

A loft-style foyer with a sitting area overlooks the combined living and dining space, reached by a wide staircase with glass railings. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

A raised linear fireplace anchors the living room. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

The gourmet kitchen. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

The prep kitchen with a walk-in pantry. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

The family room. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

The ocean-view balcony off the main living areas. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

The house enjoys ocean views. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

Private steps descent to the backyard and the beach beyond. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

One of two ocean-view primary suites. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

One of two primary bathrooms. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

One of two primary walk-in closets with built-in cabinetry. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

A secondary bedroom with built-in bunk beds. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

A Laguna Beach home, one of eight Three Arch Bay beachfront properties, is on the market for under $30 million. (Photo by Toby Ponnay)

A Laguna Beach home, one of only eight directly on the sand in Three Arch Bay, is on the market for $29.95 million.

The three-story, 5,072-square-foot house, completed in 2007 and newly remodeled, boasts four bedrooms, six bathrooms and private steps that descend to the backyard and the beach, accessible by land only to residents of the guard-gated community.

Sited on a 9,040-square-foot, cul-de-sac lot, the house enjoys ocean views from inside the open floor plan, courtesy of floor-to-ceiling bifold glass doors.

The entry is at the top level. A loft-style foyer with a sitting area overlooks the combined living and dining space, reached by a wide staircase with glass railings.

Beneath the loft is the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz-countertops, a peninsula, an island with breakfast bar seating, high-end stainless steel appliances, a glass-enclosed wine wall and a prep kitchen with a walk-in pantry.

A raised linear fireplace anchors the living room.

The main living areas open to an ocean-view balcony, which runs the width of the rear of the house.

There’s an elevator in the family room.

The lower two levels each include an ocean-view primary suite, with one suite featuring a bonus room. Both suites have a fireplace, a bathroom and a walk-in closet with built-in cabinetry. Glass walls open up to covered balconies.

Elsewhere, one of the two secondary bedrooms has built-in bunk beds.

An attached three-car garage adds to the home’s offerings.

Tim Smith of Coldwell Banker Realty holds the listing.

Records show the house belongs to a Minnesota-formed limited liability company associated with the late Robert J. Lothenbach, a commercial printing entrepreneur and owner and breeder of champion thoroughbreds. Lothenbach Prop IV LLC acquired the property in September 2015 for $15.8 million.

Lothenbach died in November 2023 at 64.